"When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money."
-Alanis Obomsawin

Despite my promise to not talk doom and gloom in every newsletter, it’s impossible to not discuss the broad implications that the tariffs this week will have on our whole food system, and ergo, your grocery bill. The U.S. just slapped a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, two countries that supply nearly 90% of our fresh vegetable imports. In 2020, Mexico accounted for 77 percent of U.S. fresh vegetable import volume, and Canada represented 11 percent.1

On account of this being a food and gardening newsletter, and also on account of me having zero economic credentials except for some college econ classes and a zest for knowledge, I’ll direct you to this piece from Al Jazeera for a bird’s eye view of tariffs, and what else besides produce is at stake (hint: it’s a lot!).

Earlier this week, Target’s CEO said that consumers will likely see price increases over the next couple of days on produce — I’m personally on that Target boycott, but I’m expecting to notice price increases at my grocery stores soon. Just ask my husband, I know the exact prices of everything we buy and have them filed away in some little hidey hole in my brain. I chalk it up to having watched a lot of Price is Right as a child.

“But this is America! Don’t we all just eat ultra-processed garbage anyways? Who is even eating all that fresh produce?” Pardon the dramatic flair, but it’s not that far off. According to NPR:

Ultra-processed foods currently make up nearly 60% of what the typical adult eats, and nearly 70% of what kids eat. The category includes everything from cookies and sodas to jarred sauces, cereals, packaged breads and frozen meals, even ice creams. You might not realize you're eating one, but look close and you'll see many ingredients you wouldn't find in your kitchen — think bulking agents, hydrolyzed protein isolates, color stabilizers, humectants.

And what is required to make the ultra-processed foods that we are consuming like the humans in WALL-E? Energy, industrial agriculture, and synthetic ingredients, all of which will likely become more expensive. Processed foods are designed to be cheap, shelf-stable, and convenient. But they come at a steep cost, namely to our health, our environment, and, as we’re seeing now, our wallets.

The cost of processed foods could rise along with produce, since a lot of the ingredients in these foods come from trade with our neighboring countries. Don’t be surprised to see prices for items like canned vegetables, frozen meals, and packaged snacks increase as well.

“How did we get here!?” Great question.

Remember all of those shortages during COVID? The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, which in turn caused many companies to diversify suppliers or shift production closer to the U.S., a strategy known as "nearshoring." By sourcing from Canada and Mexico instead of Asia, businesses aimed to reduce risks from shortages and shipping delays.

Which was all fine and dandy, until now it’s not.

The products that experts expect to be hit the hardest include: avocados, strawberries, peppers, nuts, beer, cooking oil, seafood, maple syrup, butter, and beef.

But it wasn’t just COVID that got us into this situation. For the past two decades, fresh vegetable imports from Canada and Mexico have surged nearly 200%, driven by demand for year-round produce, trade agreements, and advanced greenhouse farming.2 Now, with these new tariffs, we could see ripple effects—higher prices, strained supply chains, and even a bigger push for domestic production.

But —oh crap!—now fertilizer might become more expensive, as about 80 per cent of US supplies of potash comes from Canada, the world’s largest producer.3 Potash, a.k.a. potassium, a.k.a. the "K" in NPK written on fertilizer packaging because it’s crucial for plant health, helping with everything from water management to disease resistance and fruit production.

What tangled webs we weave, when first we practice…to prioritize short-term gains over long-term resilience. Globalization has had many, many successes, but this is all a reminder that the more deeply entrenched and connected we become, the more fragile the whole system becomes.

Toni Farmer, a professor of agriculture at UPenn, shared some videos on Instagram this week breaking down how the tariffs will affect us from a food system standpoint. And if you’re a gardener or someone who eats food (psst: that is all of you!) then you’ll want to follow her on Instagram because she’s brilliant, and I have learned so much from her already.

I’m embedding both of these videos here because they’re essential viewing for anyone trying to understand just how intertwined and convoluted our global food system is. If these tariffs turn out to be long-lasting, and not the flash-in-the-pan bluster and bravado of this administration we all hope they are, they could wreak havoc on our food supply.

tonifarmersgarden

A post shared by @tonifarmersgarden

tonifarmersgarden

A post shared by @tonifarmersgarden

One of the key takeaways for me was do not stockpile. Farmer mentions that it’s a logistical nightmare for grocery stores when customers start buying as we did during the pandemic — we have enough food for now, as most retailers actually planned and stockpiled inventory at 2024 prices, knowing the tariffs were a likely outcome.

That being said, I’m of the belief that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and I, myself, will be purchasing some bulk wheat berries from Azure Standard this month. No crazy prepper amounts, but wheat is the cornerstone of any emergency storage supply. Approximately 150 lbs will supply an adult for one year. A three-week emergency supply is approximately 5-10 lbs per adult.4

So what does this all mean for us home gardeners? It’s a reminder that growing your own food isn’t just about flavor—it’s about food security. If tariffs drive up costs, having even a small backyard (or balcony!) garden could help offset rising grocery prices. Plus, once you taste a sun-warmed, fresh-off-the-vine, perfectly ripened homegrown tomato, it will ruin all future store-bought tomatoes for you.

We’re 11 weeks from last frost here in Central Massachusetts (zone 6a) and I was able to get my hands on two large bags of my favorite seed starting mix, from Coast of Maine. My local nursery doesn’t open until the first official day of Spring, so I had to track the bags down a little further afield. Now all I have to do is sanitize the rest of my seed starting equipment which is always my most-dreaded task. I should have done that yesterday when it was 55º, but alas I opted to make fresh bagels instead, Procrastinating a boring, necessary task with delicious, unnecessary (but very welcome) carbohydrates!

Until next (pizza) Friday,

Amy

Whole Grain Rye Bread

I’ve got a new recipe on the blog—whole grain rye bread, a regular in my kitchen. This is a bread machine recipe, so baking purists, scroll right along. But if you have a bread machine, or are keeping your eyes out at thrift stores and yard sales, you’ll want to save this one. This hearty, wholesome loaf is made with a blend of whole wheat and rye flours, oats, and blackstrap molasses. It’s perfect for sandwiches, French toast, or just smeared thickly with good butter.

LOLs of the Week

epicgardening

A post shared by @epicgardening

lando_eats

A post shared by @lando_eats

girliebrainrot

A post shared by @girliebrainrot

sarahdoessourdough

A post shared by @sarahdoessourdough

Reading

A Court of Silver Flames by Sarah J. Maas (for the ACOTAR fans out there, this one is taking me forever to get through because I find Nesta to be a horribly annoying and insufferable character! I will persevere because I love the series but man, this one is a slog and a half.)

A Life in the Garden: Tales and Tips for Growing Food in Every Season by Barbara Damrosch

On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder

Listening

Making

This year, I’m trying my darndest to make everything within reason from scratch —meaning, the goal isn’t perfection, but stretching myself to rethink my grocery store purchases. I’m talking all baked goods, granola, crackers, sauces, dressings, dips, etc. I’m trying to be strategic about making and freezing extra, planning ahead, and getting the kids involved. This isn’t a tradwife/everything is poison vibe, but more of a “everything at the grocery store is so freaking expensive and I’m sick of it” frugal hippie vibe, ya feel me?

From the past week:

• ranch dressing —nothing fancy here, honestly, as I have Hidden Valley ranch seasoning in bulk from Costco so just mixed it into Greek yogurt.

• granola —recipe on the blog next week!

• hummus —I’m working on a dupe of Wegman’s caramelized onion hummus because it has my whole family in a chokehold.

• 2x banana bread (why is it that when you buy one bunch of bananas, your kids each eat two a day, but when you buy two bunches they eat none? A scientist must study this phenomenon.)

• Pinch of yum wild rice chicken soup —this was insanely good!

• Pasta sauce —for spaghetti and meatballs, as requested by my kids (used frozen garden tomatoes)

• Bagels from Bernard Clayton’s New Complete Book of Breads —both of my kids were absolutely raving about these. “Mom!!! These are SO GOOD!!!! Best bagels I’ve ever HAD!!”

Loving

• @abbyinthegalley on TikTok - Abby is a private chef who works on yachts, and a lot of the videos on her account help to demystify the process of buying meat. As a former 5+ year vegan who has since returned to eating meat but managed to reach the ripe age of 38 without actually knowing about various cuts of meat, this account is a godsend. First of all, the “hey little chef” is just precious, like yes! It’s me! I am a little chef! Videos like this are helpful for people looking to get quality cuts of meat while saving money at the grocery store, and don’t we all need that right now?

• One of my favorite comfort creators —@oldschoolkevmo on TikTok. He’s a chef in a sorority house and aside from serving up absolutely fire looking meals, I am extremely into the oversized kitchen equipment like a whisk the size of my entire arm. “What a treat!”

• Ruby Bhogal
  ’s Substack —she was a contestant on Great British Baking Show a few years ago, and every one of her baked goods is stunning. The rhubarb plaiting? Exquisite.

Link Roundup

This Colombian 'hotel for cows' could help reduce deforestation in the Amazon [NPR]

How Fungi Move Among Us [NYT]

The internet’s favorite bald eagles, Jackie and Shadow, just had hatchlings [NatGeo]

In Milestone for Nature Recovery, England to Reintroduce Beavers to the Wild [EcoWatch]

Rising Temperatures Are Scrambling the Base of the Ocean Food Web [NYT]

Enjoying Pizza Friday? Share the love and forward this email to a friend you think would dig it so they can get in on the fun, too. Like pebbling, which is what penguins do! They bring little trinkets like pebbles to their loved ones. How precious is that?

Share Pizza Friday by Front Yard Veggies